Recent Submissions

  • Characteristics of women admitted to medium secure care : a comparison of patients admitted to specialised single-sex and mixed-sex services in an English forensic psychiatric hospital

    McCarthy, Lucy; Westhead, Jodie; Gibbon, Simon; Hatcher, Ruth M; Clarke, Martin (Frontiers Media, 2025)
    BackgroundForensic mental health care has evolved from mixed-sex provision to specialised sex-specific services. It is important to understand how the characteristics of women admitted to medium secure care have changed over time and how this may impact on their outcomes after discharge.ObjectiveThe study aims to describe and compare admission and discharge characteristics of two consecutive cohorts; women admitted between 1983 and 2001 to a mixed-sex medium secure care (‘Mixed’ cohort) and women admitted between 2005 and 2013 to single-sex medium secure care (‘Specialised’ cohort).MethodsData came from a 30-year study of outcomes for first admissions to an NHS medium secure hospital (the ALACRITy study). Follow-up data were available up to a census date of June 30th 2013.Results93 women comprised the Mixed cohort (mean age 29.3 years; 81% White ethnicity; 49% personality disorder diagnosis) and 45 women comprised the Specialised cohort (mean age 32.4 years; 76% White ethnicity; 49% personality disorder diagnosis). The Specialised cohort were more likely than the Mixed cohort to be admitted from high security, or under a forensic section of the Mental Health Act. The Specialised cohort were more likely than the Mixed cohort to have previous convictions, or to have committed a ‘grave’ index offence warranting a life sentence. Over 95% of all women had received previous inpatient psychiatric care. The Specialised cohort had greater prevalence of alcohol use, self-harm and childhood adversity than the Mixed cohort. At the census, 99% of the Mixed cohort and 42% of the Specialised cohort had been discharged. Women in the Specialised cohort had a longer median length of stay than the Mixed cohort; 859 days and 229 days respectively. Over 80% of patients in the Mixed cohort were readmitted during the follow-up period.ConclusionThe study provides empirical data for two consecutive cohorts of women admitted to one medium secure hospital over the course of thirty years. Women admitted to single-sex services had more criminological and adverse trauma histories than women admitted to the earlier mixed-sex service. Further research is required to establish the long-term outcomes of women admitted to specialised single-sex medium secure care.
  • Patient and public involvement in secure mental health research : setting-specific considerations and a protocol for involvement in the CORAS study (COllaborative Risk ASsessment and management)

    Clifford, Naomi; Jeynes, Catherine; Callaghan, Ian; Foster, Sheena; Markham, Sarah; Moore, Hannah; Forsyth, Katrina; Crosbie, Brian; Fazel, Seena; Whiting, Daniel (Springer Nature, 2025)
    BACKGROUND: Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement (PPIE) is important in secure psychiatric research because it can help ensure that research is relevant and meaningful, and a positive experience for those participating. However, there are significant challenges to embedding PPIE in research in secure hospital settings, including practical barriers to involvement. A lack of reporting of PPIE practices makes it harder for researchers to learn from previous projects, leading to missed opportunities to improve PPIE in secure settings, and there are no current setting-specific guidelines for best practice. The CORAS study aims to examine collaborative risk assessment within secure psychiatric settings. In this study, PPIE is fully integrated throughout the research cycle, and this protocol describes the PPIE methodology being adopted. By highlighting these approaches and principles, this protocol is intended to be used as a transferrable framework for developing best practice for PPIE in research in these settings. METHOD: This protocol describes the ways in which we will ensure that PPIE remains central to each stage of the research project, from the formation of a smaller grant application PPIE group, through to dissemination of outputs. We discuss principles of recruitment into the PPIE group, ensuring that all areas of the secure mental health pathway are represented, and formally embracing equality, diversity and inclusion principles through the use of an Equality Impact Assessment. We also describe the core activities of the PPIE group, including the co-design of the research materials, recruitment strategies and dissemination plans, how the impact of PPIE will be examined, and practical elements such as around reimbursement and ensuring the wellbeing of PPIE group members. CONCLUSIONS: PPIE in secure mental health service research is important and challenging. This protocol outlines how we will address these challenges and ensure that PPIE is fully embedded in the design and delivery of a large study in secure settings. Although the prospective nature of this protocol precludes the sharing of outcomes and learning from the PPIE, it can nevertheless serve as a transferrable framework for the development that is urgently required in this clinical research field, as well as allow transparent future reporting of what was achieved. Involving people with their own lived experience in the design and running of clinical research studies can improve the quality and impact of these studies, as well as the experience for people taking part in them. In some clinical settings this involvement might be more difficult. In secure psychiatric hospitals things like security can make it difficult for people to be involved in this way in research. There is not much guidance available for researchers on how to do this better when running studies in secure settings. The CORAS study (COllaborative Risk ASsessment and management in secure services) is a research study in these settings that is exploring how to involve patients and carers in their risk assessments and risk management plans (or safety plans). We have developed detailed plans for how to make sure that patients and carers have a central role in all areas of this study, including designing parts of the study and how best to make sure that the results of the study reach patients and carers. This paper outlines how we are planning to do this, so that other researchers designing studies in these clinical settings can understand and build on some of the practical ways of involving people with lived experience. eng publication: N/A. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
  • The lasting impact of COVID-19 on forensic mental health : a review of shifts in patient profiles, service delivery, and legal considerations

    Ebo, Titus O; Olawade, David B; Ebo, Dolapo Mary; Egbon, Eghosasere; Ayoola, Folasayo I (Elsevier, 2025)
    The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound and lasting impact on forensic mental health, reshaping patient profiles, disrupting service delivery, and introducing new legal and ethical challenges. This narrative review examines the long-term implications of the pandemic on forensic psychiatric populations, mental health service provision, and the justice system. Evidence suggests that rates of severe mental illness, including psychosis, depression, and anxiety, have increased among forensic patients, exacerbated by isolation, stress, and reduced access to care. Additionally, substance use disorders, and co-occurring psychiatric conditions have become more prevalent, complicating treatment and rehabilitation efforts. The pandemic also accelerated the adoption of telepsychiatry in forensic settings, improving accessibility but raising concerns about the reliability of remote assessments for competency evaluations and risk assessments. Inpatient and prison-based forensic psychiatric services experienced staff shortages, increased patient aggression, and limited access to therapeutic programs, further straining the system. Court closures and legal case backlogs delayed forensic evaluations, raising human rights concerns for detained individuals. Ethical dilemmas emerged regarding involuntary hospitalization, treatment prioritization, and resource allocation. As the forensic mental health field transitions into a post-pandemic landscape, key lessons include the need for hybrid forensic assessment models, strengthened forensic infrastructure, and better integration of legal and clinical perspectives. Future research should focus on developing resilient forensic mental health policies and ensuring equitable access to care while maintaining legal and ethical standards.
  • A feasibility study of a physical activity intervention for people with severe mental illness in medium secure psychiatric services in the United Kingdom

    Roden-Lui, Gloria; Faulkner, Guy; Lucock, Mike; Gibbons, Simon; Hewitt, Catherine; Hughes, Elizabeth; Khan, Wajid; Lewis, Kiara; Singh, Bal; Walters, Phil; et al. (Frontiers Media, 2025)
    BackgroundIn the UK, there are approximately 3500 individuals detained in medium secure service. Service users in such settings have complex and severe mental illness (SMI), often with co-morbid physical health problems, shorter life expectancy and low levels of physical activity (PA). However, there are few studies about PA interventions for medium secure service users in the United Kingdom. Therefore, the aim of the study was to co-produce, with medium secure service users and staff, the content and delivery of an intervention to increase PA.MethodsA feasibility and acceptability study were conducted to test the PA intervention using the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation Behaviour Change Model (COM-B model) as the underpinning theoretical model. Both female and male service users, with personality disorder and/or mental illness, were recruited from two medium secure services in the UK.Outcome measures were collected at baseline, after the intervention and at follow up (3-months after intervention), and included PA levels, mental well-being, data on recruitment and retention and causes of drop out.ResultsA total of 33 participants were recruited. Seven participants withdrew during the intervention period and 26 participants completed the PA intervention. During the follow up stage, three participants withdrew. Following the intervention participants increased PA and improved physical health and wellbeing. Overall, there was good retention for the PA interventionConclusionRetention rates and completeness of data at both study sites indicate that it is feasible and acceptable to co-produce, deliver and maintain commitment to a PA intervention in such settings for service users with SMI. A future pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) will allow further understanding about the effectiveness of the PA intervention in medium secure psychiatric services.Clinical trial registrationhttps://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN15546527, ISRCTN Registry – ISRCTN15546527.
  • A conceptual framework outlining the use of compassionate mind training following incidents of moral injury within forensic mental health services

    Williams, Catrin; Cook, Aimee (Emerald Group Publishing, 2025)
    Purpose: Forensic mental health professionals often face challenging situations that can lead to moral injury. This occurs when individuals' experiences or actions conflict with their values and moral beliefs, leading to psychological distress or discomfort. Moral injury has been shown to be linked with a plethora of adverse psychological health outcomes, and can impair both occupational and personal functioning, including the quality of care delivered to service users. Design/methodology/approach: This paper details how forensic mental health professionals can respond to threat-based thinking, emotions and self-criticism using compassion following incidents of moral injury with compassionate mind training (CMT). Finding(s): CMT has been found to alleviate psychological distress and support development of soothing capabilities (Gilbert and Procter, 2006). Practical implications: This paper describes the central tenets of CMT and how it supports the balancing of three motivational systems: threat, drive and soothing systems. Originality/value: It further highlights the three flows of compassion: compassion from others, compassion towards others and compassion for self and how this can influence staff well-being in relation to moral injury. Copyright © 2025, Emerald Publishing Limited.
  • Mechanical restraint in inpatient psychiatric settings : a systematic review of international prevalence, associations, outcomes, and reduction strategies

    Whiting, Daniel; Tully, John (Cambridge University Press, 2025)
    BACKGROUND: There is increasing emphasis on reducing the use and improving the safety of mechanical restraint (MR) in psychiatric settings, and on improving the quality of evidence for outcomes. To date, however, a systematic appraisal of evidence has been lacking. METHODS: We included studies of adults (aged 18-65) admitted to inpatient psychiatric settings. We included primary randomised or observational studies from 1990 onwards that reported patterns of MR and/or outcomes associated with MR, and qualitative studies referring to an index admission or MR episode. We presented prevalence data only for studies from 2010 onwards. The risk of bias was assessed using an adapted checklist for randomised/observational studies and the Newcastle-Ottawa scale for interventional studies. RESULTS: We included 83 articles on 73 studies from 1990-2022, from 22 countries. Twenty-six studies, from 11 countries, 2010 onwards, presented data from on proportions of patients/admissions affected by MR. There was wide variation in prevalence (<1-51%). This appeared to be mostly due to variations in standard protocols between countries and regions, which dictated use compared to other restrictive practices such as seclusion. Indications for MR were typically broad (violence/aggression, danger to self or property). The most consistently associated factors were the early phase of admission, male sex, and younger age. Ward and staff factors were inconsistently examined. There was limited reporting of patient experience or positive effects. CONCLUSIONS: MR remains widely practiced in psychiatric settings internationally, with considerable variation in rates, but few high-quality studies of outcomes. There was a notable lack of studies investigating different types of restraint, indications, clinical factors associated with use, the impact of ethnicity and language, and evidence for outcomes. Studies examining these factors are crucial areas for future research. In limiting the use of MR, some ward-level interventions show promise, however, wider contextual factors are often overlooked.
  • Artificial intelligence in forensic mental health : a review of applications and implications

    Ebo, Titus O. (Elsevier, 2025)
    This narrative review explores the transformative role of artificial intelligence (AI) in forensic mental health, focusing on its applications, benefits, limitations, and ethical considerations. AI's capabilities, particularly in areas such as risk assessment, mental health screening, behavioral analysis, and treatment recommendations, present promising advancements for accuracy, efficiency, and objectivity in forensic evaluations. Predictive models and natural language processing enhance the precision of high-stakes assessments, enabling early intervention and optimized resource allocation. However, AI's integration in forensic mental health also brings significant challenges, particularly regarding data quality, algorithmic bias, transparency, and legal accountability. Limited access to high-quality, representative data can hinder reliability, while biases within AI models risk perpetuating existing disparities. Ethical concerns surrounding data privacy and the "black box" nature of many AI algorithms underscore the need for transparency and accountability. The review highlights future directions for responsible AI use, including improving data standards, fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, and establishing robust regulatory frameworks to safeguard ethical and fair AI applications in forensic settings. Balancing technological innovation with ethical considerations and legal obligations is essential to ensure AI supports justice and upholds public trust. This review calls for ongoing research, policy development, and cautious implementation to harness AI's potential while protecting individuals' rights within the justice system.
  • Medication required : p*RN - promoting healthy attitudes and improved access to pornography in wathwood hospital

    Parry, Joanne (Royal College of Psychiatrists, 2024)
    Aims. The key aim of this project was to update and modernise the hospital procedure on how patients access pornographic material whilst detained at Wathwood Hospital. Within the update, we aimed to promote inclusivity and acceptance of all patients' sexual identities as well as utilising the opportunity to emphasise healthy consenting sexual relationships. Patients in Forensic Mental Health settings are often inpatients for a significant amount of time, with multiple restrictions imposed on their private and family life. Current policy allows patients to purchase pornography for private use in their own room. It must be material of the same nature available in a main street outlet. In practice, material is usually purchased in DVD format from the Amazon website and subsequently screened for suitability by Security staff and finally approval by the Responsible Clinician. There have been numerous incident reports involving the trading of pornographic material. Methods. Qualitative semi-Structured group interviews (up to 5 people at a time) were conducted with patients in the mediumsecure forensic services of Wathwood Hospital. They were recruited from the fortnightly Patient Forum. Anonymised questionnaires involving Likert scales and free text response spaces were also distributed at the Patient Forum. Data gathered investigated the percentage of patients who were aware of the current procedure, if they felt it worked well and what they thought the impact of accessing pornographic material might be. Staff were invited to complete a similar anonymised questionnaire, again considering their opinions on the positive or negative impacts of pornography for patients. In addition, we gathered data on whether there was a difference on the degree of comfort/discomfort about pornography, depending on whether the material involved opposite sex or same sex couples. In total, there were 40 survey participants. Results. Some key areas for concern were found, for example, only 17% of staff and 16% of patients thought the current policy works well despite 69% of staff and 84% of patients feeling it is a patient's right to access pornography. Free text and focus group feedback established many benefits to it. It was clear that there were some areas of difficulty in the hospital policy, which would benefit from being refreshed. Conclusion. Staff and patients overall feel that access to pornography is important for many of the patients. We identified areas for improvement in how this is accessed and a need to continually be considering the need to consider meeting the holistic needs for the patients.
  • Collaborative risk assessment and management planning in secure mental health services in England: protocol for a realist review

    Jeynes, Catherine; Clifford, Naomi; Thorpe, Naomi; Whiting, Daniel (BMJ Group, 2025-05-27)
    Introduction Secure mental health pathways are complex. They are typically based around secure hospitals, but also interface with justice agencies and other clinical services, including in the community. Consideration of risk is fundamental to clinical care and to decisions relating to a patient’s stepwise journey through the pathway. Patient autonomy and involvement in decision-making are policy priorities for health services. However, improving collaboration in risk-related decisions in secure services is complicated by potential issues with insight and capacity and the necessary involvement of other agencies. In addition, although some collaborative approaches are feasible and effective, their impact, mechanisms and the contexts in which they work are not well understood. Therefore, using realist methodology, this review will outline what works, for whom, why and under what circumstances in terms of collaborative risk assessment and management in secure services. Methods and analysis The review will consist of four stages: (1) Development of an initial programme theory to explain how and why collaborative risk assessment and management works for different groups of people, (2) search for evidence, (3) data selection and extraction and (4) evidence synthesis and development of a final programme theory. Our initial programme theory will be informed by an informal search of the literature and consultation with experts and patient and public involvement and engagement representatives. Following this, our formal literature search will include both the published and unpublished literature. During full text screening, each document will be assessed according to the principles of rigour and relevance and, if included, data will be extracted and synthesised to refine the programme theory. Ethics and dissemination This protocol is for a review of published literature and so does not require ethical approval. The main output will be the final programme theory. Remaining gaps will inform planned future work to further refine the theory using mixed methods. Our dissemination strategy will be codeveloped with our public and patient involvement group and will include publishing findings in a peer-reviewed journal and presenting findings at relevant professional conferences, as well as engaging patient, carer and clinician groups directly.
  • Reflecting on episodes of rapid tranquilisation in forensic MDT settings

    Roberts, Kris; Rahman, Arif (Royal College of Psychiatrists, 2023)
    Aims. Rampton Hospital is the High Secure Hospital of Nottinghamshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust's Forensic Service. It is one of three such hospitals in England, following Security Directions set out by the Department of Health. Patient management occurs through the implementation of strict policies and procedures. Policy requirements highlight the need for MDT post-incident discussion of restrictive interventions, and in particular, of Rapid Tranquilisation (RT). This primary audit aimed to ascertain current practice and if necessary, suggest interventions to ensure that patient-care remains safe, effective, and well-led. Methods. To establish current practice with regards to the discussion of individual cases of RT in MDT settings, specifically in Ward Round, we commenced a retrospective data collection from electronic notes covering all directorates within the High Secure estate between May and June 2022. From these notes, we tried to ascertain whether the following policy standards were being met: * A de-brief with the patient should take place as soon after the incident as is practicable and reasonable, ideally within 72 hours. * The MDT meeting post RT episode should explicitly discuss the episode, and consider medication and any triggers of periods of acutely disturbed behaviour. * There were 81 data sets to explore. Results. Not all data sets were viable. Out of those analysed, less than 10% were found to have met the aforementioned ideal policy standards of having had a reflective discussion within 72 hours with both the patient and as an MDT, exploring the episode itself and its antecedents. Conclusion. There are several interesting factors to consider from the results obtained. We postulate that the frequency of episodes of RT makes meeting the policy standard problematic; pragmatically, there is a significant time barrier to exploring these incidents in detail and the various teams, operating in dynamic and highrisk environments, may find it difficult to coalesce in order to debrief appropriately. Furthermore, the reflections may actually be happening, but the burden of documentation mean that these are not being recorded formally in a way that can be measured. There are limitations to the searches of electronic notes and we did not have access to Incident Reports, often completed at the time of these episodes; further information may have been uncovered if they were available. Despite this, there is room for interventions that inform staff of this need and to provoke improvements in current practice.
  • Physical Health Monitoring of Patients on Antipsychotic Medication at a Medium Secure Unit

    Deol, Harlene; Gibbon, Simon D.; Wokekoro, Oronne (Royal College of Psychiatrists, 2023)
    Aims. People who have a serious mental illness have a higher prevalence of physical health problems as compared to the general population; with a 2-3 times greater risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, double the risk of obesity and diabetes, three times the risk of hypertension and metabolic syndrome and five times the risk of dyslipidaemia than the general population. There is a concern that some antipsychotic drugs have metabolic consequences that contribute to the risk. As such, it is imperative that patients treated with antipsychotics receive appropriate health monitoring. Physical health monitoring of antipsychotic medications is an essential aspect of our practice, and despite assurance in previous audits, we agreed to monitor biannually to ensure we were maintaining standards. Additionally, this audit aimed to look more closely at special monitoring requirements for drugs such as Olanzapine, Chlorpromazine, Clozapine and Quetiapine which had not been measured in previous audits and would likely highlight some areas for improvement. Methods. Audit standards were drawn from the Maudsley Prescribing Guidelines in Psychiatry 14th edition, in addition to NICE Guidance CG178 - Psychosis and schizophrenia in adults: prevention and management. A random number generator was used to select patients from each of the 7 wards, giving a sample size of 21 patients. Data were collected on Weight, BP, ECG and various blood tests conducted from February 2021 - February 2022. Data was collected from a combination of patient electronic record, CPA reports, and online blood results system. Data were inputted to MS Excel which created percentage compliance in each domain. Results. 1. Blood Pressure: General compliance in the taking of BP met our standard of 100% 2. Weight: Annual monitoring compliance was 93% however compliance fell short for special recommendations for Clozapine, Olanzapine and Chlorpromazine. 3. ECG: Our compliance fell short in the recording of an ECG on admission, or at reaching target medication dose. Annual monitoring compliance was 93%. 4. Bloods: Annual compliance for FBC, LFT, U&Es, Lipids, Prolactin and 5. Glucose were 100%, however our compliance fell short for baseline recording and interim 3-6 monthly monitoring for various blood tests. Conclusion. Overall results demonstrate good, safe practice, particularly during a challenging period for clinical teams. Shortfalls particularly at baseline were related to risk issues making investigations impractical. It was agreed that there should be an increased frequency of regular glucose monitoring and that HbA1c monitoring was a reasonable measure for this.
  • Metacognition, philosophy in prisons and the demands of rehabilitation

    Gois, Isabel; Kane, Eddie (2025)
    Abstract This article sets out the case for providing regular philosophy sessions in prisons by focusing on its role in improving metacognition. We start by drawing attention to an important body of research on metacognition that is relevant to supporting prisoners in transitioning towards more prosocial lifestyles, as well as navigating the complexities of life both during and post-incarceration. We then make the case for offering philosophy programmes in prisons in order to help nurture and develop metacognitive skills in this population.
  • Barriers and facilitators to increasing physical activity in medium secure mental health settings: An exploration of staff perceptions

    Gibbon, Simon D. (2025)
    Purpose: The benefits of physical activity for people with severe mental illness (SMI) is widely recognised but for those in medium secure settings there are additional environmental barriers to being active that have not been fully explored. The aim of this study was to explore the perceived barriers and facilitators from the perspective of staff within the medium secure setting. Method(s): Semi-structured focus groups were conducted with qualified and unqualified staff (n = 24) across two UK medium secure NHS settings. Michie's COM-B framework was used to inform the topic guide and the analysis of the data. Result(s): The opportunities to be active in medium secure settings depend not only on access to facilities but also staff availability and willingness to support such activities. When an individualised approach is taken, and staff are skilled and motivated to support such activities then it is possible for people with SMI in medium secure settings to be physically active. Conclusion(s): People with SMI in secure settings have reduced autonomy to increase their own physical activities but it was suggested that with the appropriate opportunities and the motivation of staff their capability to be active could be enhanced.
  • Introduction

    Willmot, Phil; Jones, Lawrence F. (2022)
    The introduction explores some of the reasons why trauma has been overlooked in forensic psychology, despite its prevalence in forensic populations. Reasons include the complexity of the relationship between trauma and offending, difficulty in defining trauma and societal pressures that favour punishment over rehabilitation. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that a trauma-informed approach may be a new paradigm in forensic psychology.
  • First do no harm

    Jones, Lawrence F. (2006)
    No abstract available
  • Risk Assessment and Management

    Jones, Lawrence F. (British Psychological Society, 2004)
    No abstract available
  • CAT and trauma-informed care

    Jones, Lawrence F. (Pavilion, 2024)
  • Reciprocal roles between therapies – a dialogue

    Jones, Lawrence F. (Pavilion, 2024)
    No abstract available
  • Challenging bias in forensic psychological assessment and testing

    Jones, Lawrence F. (2022)
    Challenging Bias in Forensic Psychological Assessment and Testing is a groundbreaking work that addresses the biases and inequalities within the field of forensic psychology. It gives valuable insights into individual practices and wider criminal justice approaches at an international level, while providing tangible solutions to tackle the disparities. This book constructively critiques current forensic practice and psychological assessment approaches through a variety of diverse voices from pioneering researchers around the world who offer their expertise on these challenges and assist the reader to consider their potential contribution to pushing forward the frontiers of Forensic Psychology. The authors also locate the origin of these biases in order to further dismantle them, and improve the outcomes for the forensic client base – especially specific diverse populations. They emphasise the need to be creative and evolve not just in line with the real-world changes of today, but also to prevent the issues of tomorrow before they become the next news headline. This is a must read for professionals working in criminal justice, forensic psychology, legal psychology, and related fields. It is also a compelling resource for students and researchers of forensic psychology with particular interest in social diversity and inclusion.
  • The validity of reconviction as a proxy measure for re-offending: Interpreting risk measures and research in the light of false convictions and detection and conviction evasion skills (DACES) and processes

    Jones, Lawrence F. (Routledge, 2022)
    Risk assessment tools and intervention efficacy evaluations typically use reconviction as an outcome that is assumed to be a valid measure of the return to offending (RTO). Reconviction is however problematic as a measure of RTO because a significant amount of offending goes unreported, undetected and/or unconvicted. The consequences and implications of this measurement problem are significant for the forensic practitioner. In this chapter we outline the nature of this problem, highlighting one of the key differences between clinical formulation and actuarial assessment being that the former develops a causal model of offending behaviour whilst the latter is a largely atheoretical statistical account of factors correlating with reconviction (which is fundamentally different from RTO). We explore how clinical judgement may be predicting RTO, whereas actuarial assessment predicts reconviction (a smaller subset of those re-offending). The literature supports the idea that biases, such as racism and unequal detection and conviction rates for different groups of people, underpin convictions which are inevitably “baked in” (e.g., Mayson, 2019) to actuarial assessment; hence risk assessments are predicting outcomes that can be biased. The need to assess individual and systemic detection and conviction evasion skills and processes as part of assessment is highlighted, and a preliminary model for analysing systemic detection and conviction evasion skills and processes is presented. The importance of specifying a measurement model before interpreting reconviction as a “valid” outcome measure is highlighted

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