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    Predictors of adverse outcome in the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: results from a UK centre

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    Author
    Martin, Christopher
    Pan, Daniel
    Hills, George
    Modha, Deborah
    Patel, Prashanth
    Jenkins, David
    Barton, Linda
    Jones, William
    Brunskill, Nigel
    Haldar, Pranab
    Pareek, Manish
    Show allShow less
    Keyword
    COVID-19
    ethnicity
    mortality
    Date
    2022
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Publisher's URL
    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20499361221074569
    Abstract
    Background/aims: Data concerning differences in demographics/disease severity between the first and second waves of COVID-19 are limited. We aimed to examine prognosis in patients presenting to hospital with COVID-19 amongst different ethnic groups between the first and second waves in the UK. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we included 1763 patients presenting to a regional hospital centre in Leicester (UK) and compared those in the first (n = 956) and second (n = 807) waves. Admission National Early Warning Scores, mechanical ventilation and mortality rate were lower in the second wave compared with the first. Results: Thirty-day mortality risk in second wave patients was approximately half that of first wave patients [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40-0.75]. In the second wave, Black patients were at higher risk of 30-day mortality than White patients (4.73, 1.56-14.3). Conclusion: We found that disporportionately higher risks of death in patients from ethnic minority groups were not equivalent across consecutive waves of the pandemic. This suggests that risk factors for death in those from ethnic minority groups are malleable and potentially reversible. Our findings need urgent investigation in larger studies.
    Citation
    Martin, C. A., Pan, D., Hills, G., Modha, D., Patel, P., Gray, L. J., Jenkins, D. R., Barton, L., Jones, W., Brunskill, N. J., Haldar, P., Khunti, K., & Pareek, M. (2022). Predictors of adverse outcome in the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: results from a UK centre. Therapeutic advances in infectious disease, 9, 20499361221074569. https://doi.org/10.1177/20499361221074569
    Type
    Article
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12904/15239
    Collections
    Business, Finance and Performance
    Haematology
    Pathology
    Infectious Diseases
    Respiratory Services

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