A prediction model for treatment decisions in distal radial physeal injuries: A multicenter retrospective study

Abstract

Background: There are no clearly defined guidelines for the management of distal radial physeal injuries. We aimed to identify the risk factors for patients with distal radial physeal trauma for the risk of deformity, physeal closure, and revision procedure and develop a predictive model. Methods: The retrospective study included patients less than 16 years old with displaced distal radial physeal injuries treated between 2011 and 2018 across five centers in the United Kingdom. Deformity was defined as a volar angulation of >11°, dorsal angulation of >15°, a radial inclination of <15° or >23°, or positive ulnar variance. Presence of a bony bar spanning the physis was considered physeal closure. Results: This study comprised of 479 patients. In that, 32 (6.6%) patients had a second procedure. Also, 49 (10.2%) patients had closure of physis, and 28 (6%) patients had deformity at the end of follow-up. The occurrence of deformity had a strong correlation with age (p = 0.04) and immobilization duration (p = 0.003). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that age >12.5 years (p = 0.006) and sagittal angulation of >21.7° (p = 0.002) had a higher odd of deformity. Immobilization for <4.5 weeks (p = 0.01) had a higher revision rate. The nomograms showed good calibration, with a sensitivity of 70% and specificity of 75%. Interpretation: The nomograms provide accurate, pragmatic multivariate predictive models. Anatomical reduction is recommended in patients >12.5 years of age with >22° of dorsal angulation with cast immobilization for no less than 4.5 weeks. Any revision procedure should be performed within 11 days from the date of injury to reduce the risk of physeal damage.